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The ultimate accuracy is going to be determined by the range resolution. The range resolution for triangulation based range sensing is given by:
delta_r = r^2/b*K_d
Where r is range, b is baseline, K_d is some constant based on the disparity resolution (focal length * disparity resolution for standard stereo).
I did some tests today and found that for our Kinect, using delta_r = r^2*0.0075 works pretty well.